Dear all,

We will have our next LIRa session tomorrow, on Thursday, 16 November 16:30.

This will be a hybrid session. If you want to attend online, please use our recurring zoom link: https://uva-live.zoom.us/j/89230639823?pwd=YWJuSnJmTDhXcWhmd1ZkeG5zb0o5UT09 (Meeting ID: 892 3063 9823, Passcode: 421723)

You can find the details of the talk below.

Speaker: Jan-Willem Romeijn (University of Groningen)

Date and Time: Thursday, November 16th 2023, 16:30-18:00

Venue: ILLC seminar room F1.15 in Science Park 107 and online

Title: *Reverse-engineering the model*

Abstract. Data-driven or "machine learning" prediction methods generate predictions from data without explicitly stating their modeling assumptions. In fact there are substantial obstacles to bringing those assumptions out in the traditional format, because machine learning methods mostly do not rely on explicit representations of their target systems. In my talk I combine recent machine learning research and insights from inductive logic and the philosophy of statistics to provide a road-map for reverse-engineering the models inherent to any prediction method. Next I will determine whether and in what ways these implicit models represent their target, drawing on ideas about randomness and nonlinear dynamics. My preliminary conclusion is that the reverse-engineered models represent only superficially, and that they make visible how our traditional conception of models is ill-suited for a science of complex systems, echoing Breiman's seminal paper on the two cultures of statistics.

Hope to see you there!

The LIRa team